Beijing property market 2015 summary: policy continued to be good, turnover prices rose
- Time of issue:2016-01-14 16:35
Beijing property market 2015 summary: policy continued to be good, turnover prices rose
(Summary description)In 2015, the property market continued to be positive, and the Beijing market "increased both in volume and price". In terms of price, in 2015, the average price of newly-built commercial residential buildings (excluding affordable housing) in Beijing increased steadily, with the annual average price of 27006 yuan / m2, up 7.65% compared with 2014.
- Time of issue:2016-01-14 16:35
In 2015, the property market continued to be positive, and the Beijing market "increased both in volume and price". In terms of price, in 2015, the average price of newly-built commercial residential buildings (excluding affordable housing) in Beijing increased steadily, with the annual average price of 27006 yuan / m2, up 7.65% compared with 2014. In terms of transaction, in 2015, affected by the favorable policies, the Beijing real estate market showed a growth trend on a year-on-year basis, with an average monthly turnover of 800000 square meters, and the annual turnover reached 9.7 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 31.2 percentage points. In terms of supply, 680000 square meters of commercial residential buildings were newly approved and listed every month, with a decrease rate of nearly 30% compared with the average value in 2014, which was in the second lowest level in recent seven years.
❶Price: the comprehensive influence of multiple factors promotes the steady rise of average housing price
In 2015, under the comprehensive influence of a number of city protection policies such as down payment, provident fund, interest rate and reserve requirement reduction, as well as a large number of high-end housing and self housing entering the market, the average price of newly-built commercial residential buildings in Beijing increased steadily. The average transaction price of commercial residential buildings (excluding affordable housing) in Beijing was 27006 yuan / m2, up 7.65% year-on-year. Specifically, from January to April, the average transaction price of commercial residential buildings (excluding affordable housing) in Beijing declined year-on-year due to the influence of the traditional slack season of the Spring Festival and the timeliness of the implementation of early policies; Since May 2015, the implementation effect of the favorable policies of the NPC and CPPCC has been obvious. At the same time, on April 20, the reduction measures further released the stimulation of demand. The average transaction price of commercial residential buildings (excluding affordable housing) in Beijing went up year-on-year, reaching a peak of 29178 yuan / m2 in November 2015. In December, affected by the signing of contracts from centralized housing market, the average transaction price dropped to 28958 yuan / m2.
From the price index point of view, the two indicators of new house and second-hand house are mainly increased, and the growth rate of second-hand housing price index is higher than that of new house. In 2015, Beijing's new house price index and second-hand house price index rose from 3849 points and 5795 points in January to 3991 points and 6290 points in December, respectively. In terms of months, Beijing's new housing price index has maintained a steady upward trend, with an annual growth rate of 3.69 percentage points. The second-hand housing price index also showed an upward trend in the whole year, with an annual growth rate of 8.54 percentage points. The increase of second-hand housing price index is higher than that of new housing, which is mainly attributed to the continuous interest rate cut by the central bank in 2015. At present, the benchmark interest rate of bank loans for more than five years has dropped to 4.9%, and the loan cost has dropped to the lowest point in history. At the same time, on March 30, the policy reduced the down payment ratio of second set of housing to 40%, and the suppressed demand for second-hand housing was fully released in 2015 under the favorable stimulus. The superposition of interest rate and down payment loan reduction policy has a good stimulating effect on both the first purchase and the upgraded mortgage customers.
❷Transaction: the overall policy is better, the turnover continues to rise, and the annual turnover growth is nearly 30%
In 2015, affected by favorable policies, Beijing's real estate market showed an overall growth trend on a year-on-year basis, with an average monthly turnover of 800000 square meters, and the annual turnover reached 9.7 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 31.2 percentage points. In terms of months, in January, stimulated by the follow-up favorable policies of 930 last year, Beijing's commercial housing market ushered in a good start, with a transaction area of 900000 square meters; subsequently, affected by the Spring Festival, the market entered the traditional off-season, with a significant decline in transaction volume. As of April, stimulated by a series of favorable policies on real estate such as the setting of the real estate market by the two sessions of the people's Congress of the people's Republic of China and the people's Congress of China (NPC) and the people's Congress of the people's Republic of China (NPC) and the people's Congress of the people's Republic of China (NPC) and the people's Congress of the people's Republic of China (NPC) and the people '. Since August, Beijing's housing market (excluding affordable housing) has been affected by the large volume in the early stage, and the transaction tends to be flat, but it still keeps the overall upward trend of shock. By December, the transaction volume reached 1.09 million square meters.
The proportion of transactions between the Fifth Ring Road and the sixth ring road was increased by 1 percentage point compared with last year, and the proportion of regional transactions within the Fifth Ring Road expanded. From the perspective of different regions, the housing market of Beijing's ring roads shows obvious differences. The main position of transactions between the fifth and sixth ring roads continued, accounting for 55%, and the proportion of transactions within the Fifth Ring Road expanded compared with last year. In 2015, residential transactions between the fifth and sixth ring roads in Beijing accounted for 55%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous year. This is due to the fact that a large number of transactions (self housing is basically distributed between the 5th and 6th Ring Roads), which has a pulling effect on the overall turnover; however, due to the imbalance of supply and demand and the high-end housing within the 5th Ring Road, the price rise has become a hot spot in the market, accounting for 17% of transactions, 4% higher than last year's 13%.
The transaction area is concentrated in 60-90 square meters; the average price is concentrated in 16000-28000 square meters, and the product turnover accounts for 49% respectively. Rigid demand is still the mainstream of the market, and the improvement demand shows an upward trend
According to the price segment, the transaction structure in 2015 was basically the same as last year. The main transaction volume of the market is still concentrated in the product price range of 16000-28000 yuan / m2, accounting for 49% of the transaction volume, which is 4% lower than that of the previous year, while the turnover of medium and high-end real estate with 28000 yuan / m2 increased by 3% compared with last year. On the one hand, this is due to the increase of the average transaction price of the Beijing property market as a whole, and on the other hand, it is the pulling effect of the transaction outbreak of the high-end property market.
According to the area segment, 60-90 flat and small-sized units are the main body of the market, while the proportion of large-scale units with more than 160 square meters has increased. Specifically, in terms of small house type, a large number of self housing market entry has a strong supporting role in this area; while in the large household type, due to the relatively loose credit policy, the replacement demand has been effectively released. From the perspective of the development cost of real estate enterprises, the continuous rise of land prices has greatly increased the development costs of real estate enterprises. For the sake of profit, the proportion of large family products launched is also increasing.
❸Supply: in 2015, the new supply fell back to a high level
The high level of new supply fell to the lowest level in recent years. In 2015, 680000 square meters of commercial residential buildings were newly approved and listed in Beijing every month, with a decrease rate of nearly 30% compared with the average value in 2014, which is in the second lowest level in recent seven years. In a single month, the new supply in February was the smallest, only 11.87 million square meters, and the fluctuation increased in the next four months, and reached the peak value of new supply in the first half of the year in June, and the new batch of 1256400 square meters was listed; With the implementation of the 330 New Deal effect, the relaxation of the provident fund, the liberalization of the two child policy and the central bank's multiple reduction of interest rates and other favorable policies, the real estate market is heating up significantly, developers are optimistic about the future market and actively push the price, the new supply continues to be high, with more than 1 million square meters in August, September and November. However, the sharp decline in market supply in December was mainly due to the fact that the sales performance of enterprises had generally improved this year, and the annual sales target had been basically completed, so as to change the marketing strategy and slow down the pace of push plate in order to prepare for next year.
❹Comparison of supply and demand: the overall turnover increased and the inventory decreased steadily
In 2015, a total of 11.28 million square meters of commercial residential buildings (including affordable housing) were sold in Beijing, an increase of 19% compared with that of 9.47 million square meters in 2014. In addition, the supply area of commercial housing in 2015 decreased by 19% compared with that in 2014, and the sales supply ratio rose to 1.1, indicating that the market supply and demand are at a reasonable level.
In 2015, the saleable area of Beijing's residential market was basically the same as that in 2014, which was 10.2 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year. In 2015, with supply and demand basically stable, the market inventory continued its high level in 2014, and the clearing cycle reached 13.6 months in June this year, which was the peak of the whole year. After that, along with a series of favorable policies, such as interest rate reduction and reserve fund relaxation, market demand was gradually released, developers' confidence was improved, and they actively pushed the price. Finally, the liquidation cycle was reduced to 10 months.
❺Land market: the transaction amount has reached a record high, and the land king appears frequently
In 2015, the land transaction volume continued to be low, the transaction amount reached a record high, and residential land still dominated. A total of 109 land transactions were completed in Beijing, with a year-on-year decrease of 32; the construction land area was 7.0677 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 24.66%; the land transfer fee reached 203.2 billion yuan, an increase of 6.21% over the previous year, a record high. Among them, 51 residential land transactions were completed, with a planned construction area of 9.0419 million square meters, a slight increase of 0.39% over the same period of last year; the average premium rate reached 41.81%, the peak in recent five years.
In recent years, the trend of "unsustainable" of land, especially residential land, has become more and more obvious in Beijing. Although the concentrated land push in November eased some land demand pressure, overall, the overall supply of land market continued to operate at a low level in 2015, and enterprise competition continued to intensify, resulting in frequent land grabbing.
Commercial residential sales amount ranking
In 2015, the top three residential projects in Beijing were Pangu Daguan, oceanwide international and Xishan art scene. The proportion of high-end residential projects in the list has increased, and Pangu Daguan, which signed a contract at the beginning of the year, takes the lead in high-end housing; oceanwide international ranks second with its annual sales of 4.128 billion yuan by virtue of its location advantages; Xishan art scene project is jointly built by power construction real estate and Jindi group, which has entered the sales volume ranking list for two consecutive years by virtue of its regional and brand advantages.
Commercial residential sales area ranking
In 2015, there were three commercial residential projects in Beijing, with a sales area of 100000 square meters. Among them, COFCO Vanke Changyang Peninsula, which is jointly built by COFCO and Vanke, has a hot sale of 118600 square meters with its complete product line and excellent project resources, ranking first in the list of commercial residential sales area. Huaye Oriental rose project mainly plays the science and technology brand. With the advantages of superior core area and high-end building scale, Huaye Oriental rose project ranks second with the sales area of 117200 square meters. In recent years, Shunyi area, with its convenient transportation, ultra-high green coverage and quiet living environment, has been favored by the housing group and the elderly group. The China Construction International residence project in the area ranks third with 101600 square meters.
In 2016, the national real estate market will continue to take de inventory as the main line, and classified regulation will still be the main way. In this context, it is expected that in 2016, Beijing will continue to implement the purchase restriction policy, but it will be relaxed. On the one hand, it will actively implement the favorable policies at the national level and indirectly relax the regulation; on the other hand, it will fine tune the outdated purchase restriction measures to stabilize the development of the real estate market. From the perspective of market trend, it is expected that in 2016, under the guidance of favorable policies, the overall new housing market in Beijing will continue to be better. However, affected by factors such as high base number and overdraft consumption, the turnover volume will drop slightly on a year-on-year basis, while the average transaction price will continue to rise driven by the high-end property market. From the perspective of regional market, Fengtai District, where Diwang frequently appears, will continue to be the center of Beijing property market. In 2016, the region will show a trend of "both quantity and price rise". From the perspective of product formats, the proportion of improved demand will gradually expand, the market entry volume of high-end buildings will continue to increase, while the proportion of squeezed rigid demand buildings will continue to decline, and will be gradually taken over by self housing.