Reporter Fan Xu

Recently, China Information Daily, which is in charge of the National Bureau of statistics, has published an article pointing out that the seventh national census will be held in 2020. At the national statistical work conference held in January this year, Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the National Bureau of statistics, pointed out that the seventh national census should thoroughly investigate the birth and changes of population, as well as the housing situation.

Some experts pointed out that this census may be the basis for the introduction of real estate tax in the future.

Yan Yuejin, research director of Yiju think tank Research Institute, told interface news that the development of similar housing census work actually reflects an important part of the economic census. Whether from the perspective of fixed assets, household assets and real estate, the housing census will become very meaningful. The follow-up can also pave the way for various long-term development mechanisms, especially the promotion of similar real estate tax policies will produce more positive and important results.

On March 5, this year, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in his "report on the work of the government in 2019" that it is necessary to improve the local tax system and steadily promote the legislation of real estate tax. This is the second year in a row that the government work report mentioned real estate tax. This may mean that the real estate tax legislation has entered a substantive stage.

However, due to many problems and controversies, there are different opinions on whether to levy real estate tax in China. For example, whether the real estate tax can effectively restrain the house price, whether it is reasonable to levy the real estate tax under the system of public ownership of land, whether the unrealized part of premium brought by the rise of house price should be charged with real estate tax, and whether the real estate tax should be levied on the small property right house.

Among them, whether the real estate tax can effectively restrain the house price is a common concern. In this regard, one side of the view is that the real estate tax can increase the holding cost, squeeze out the vacant supply, and play a role in restraining house prices.

"Our real estate tax is mainly added to the transaction link, and there is no tax on the holding link. So many people buy houses and wait for appreciation, neither selling nor renting, resulting in more scarce supply in the market. If the introduction of real estate tax, can from the actual demand and expectations to curb real estate speculation, inhibit house prices. " Jia Kang, former director of the Institute of financial science of the Ministry of Finance and chief economist of Huaxia new supply Economics Research Institute, said in an article in April this year.

Another view is that house price performance mainly depends on the relationship between supply and demand. The real estate tax does not change the relationship between supply and demand essentially. Wu Xiaoqiu, vice president of Renmin University of China, said at the Boao Forum for Asia in March this year: "in the long run, the key is to look at fundamentals. If there is no problem with fundamentals, real estate tax will continue to rise; if fundamentals are not attractive, real estate tax will still fall."

In addition, whether the small property right house should levy real estate tax is also one of the hot topics. Jia Kang believes that small property rights houses have price advantages. If real estate tax is not levied, the small property rights houses will be more attractive, which will encourage the illegal behaviors of small property rights houses. Wu Xiaoqiu believes that the small property right house has no property right and no tax base. Although the normal commercial housing land public ownership, but at least there are real estate ownership, small property rights housing is not even the property ownership.

In the face of numerous disputes, Xu Shanda, an expert from the Joint Research Institute of Finance and economics and former deputy director of the State Administration of Taxation, said on March 29 that "as long as there is instability, the real estate tax will not be introduced.". In his view, according to the different nature of the house, the development of targeted policies for management can solve many problems. Avoiding "one size fits all" is the "steady" direction of "steadily promoting the legislation of real estate tax" stressed in the "government work report".

Even if there are disputes and problems, industry insiders believe that the implementation of real estate tax collection will be only a matter of time.

Yu Xiancai, an associate professor at Fudan University School of economics and an expert in performance evaluation of Shanghai Municipal Bureau of finance, told interface news, "from the perspective of tax perfection, real estate tax is a necessary tax, otherwise the tax system will be incomplete." He pointed out that compared with the indirect tax which transfers the tax burden to others, the real estate tax as a direct tax can reflect the principle of affordability, which is beneficial to the adjustment of property distribution.

And in a larger perspective of macroeconomic development, real estate tax can also play an important role in regulating and repairing. "The cost of labor should be in proportion to that of the people. The higher the house price is, the greater the pressure of wage rise and the demand for the value of labor force will be. If it is transmitted to the enterprise, the cost of the enterprise will increase. " Yu Xiancai said, "in today's increasingly complex external economic environment, enterprises will be under great pressure, and even unemployment and labor shortage will appear at the same time. And the real estate tax tool will "squeeze" out the hype in house prices, so that the housing price and wage level will gradually match, which is the basis for the establishment of a healthy and long-term economic development. "

At present, in terms of the legislative process, the real estate tax is still in the drafting stage. In the follow-up, it needs to solicit public opinions, submit it to the executive meeting of the State Council for examination and approval, submit it to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress for deliberation, expert review, National People's Congress voting, and official release, which will take at least three years. A number of securities analysts predict that the legislation on property tax will be completed as soon as 2020, and then the implementation rules will be formulated in various regions, and the levy will be started as early as 2022.