On Wednesday, the central bank announced that the latest one-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) was 4.15%, previously 4.2%; LPR of more than five years was 4.80%, previously 4.85%. They were all down 5 basis points from last month. Industry insiders said that the 5-year LPR in November was lower than that in October, which fully reflected the current trend of lower interest rates in the medium and long-term loan market, and could also have a more positive impact on the housing loan market. From the current performance of the real estate market, similar burden reduction helps to reduce the cost of related housing, has a more positive effect on the development of the real estate market, and also helps real estate enterprises to de inventory.

The loan interest rate cut is basically in line with expectations

Industry insiders said that from the perspective of the real estate market, the trend of mortgage interest rate is more reflected in the 5-year LPR. From the data point of view, such data showed a downward trend in November, which further reflected the cost reduction effect of medium and long-term loan base interest rate. In particular, all kinds of monetary policy instruments such as MLF have released the guidance of cost reduction, so the similar cuts are basically in line with expectations. In other words, the housing loan interest rate cut is basically in line with expectations and has a positive impact on the follow-up market.

On August 17, the central bank announced a comprehensive reform of China's interest rate system and launched the "loan market quotation rate (LPR)". This means that the era of "benchmark loan interest rate" announced by the central bank is over, and the new loans in the future will all depend on LPR. On August 20, the quotation rate of the loan market under the new mechanism (hereinafter referred to as the new LPR) came out, with a one-year term of 4.25% and a five-year term of 4.85%. In the process of reforming and improving the formation mechanism of loan market quotation rate (LPR), the pricing benchmark of personal housing loan should also be converted from loan benchmark interest rate to LPR, so as to play a better role in the market. On October 8, the interest rate of personal housing loan and the first commercial personal housing loan shall not be lower than the market quotation rate of the corresponding term loan, and the interest rate of the second set of commercial personal housing loan shall not be lower than the market quotation rate of the corresponding term loan plus 60 basis points. The interest rate policy for individual housing loan of provident fund will not be adjusted temporarily.

It is understood that LPR is not announced by the central bank, but is authorized by the central bank to be responsible for statistics and publication. Eighteen banks quoted prices and quoted their loan interest rates of one year and more than five years, and then the "national interbank lending center" eliminated the lowest price and the highest price, and calculated the average price. When making loans, other banks should refer to the LPR interest rate, and then add their own "capital cost", "risk cost", "profit" and other factors, that is, the so-called "point increase". Therefore, the loan interest rate of each bank will not be exactly the same in the future, but the LPR interest rate is its coordinate. Among them, the LPR interest rate of more than 5 years is the coordinate of ordinary mortgage interest rate.

The pressure on monthly mortgage payment of one million yuan has been reduced

According to the formula of "mortgage interest rate = LPR + basis point", the interest rate of the first house in 64 cities was 5.58% in November, down from 5.63% in October. From the perspective of city classification, the interest rates of the first tier, second tier and third and fourth tier cities are 5.10%, 5.57% and 5.64%, respectively, which are lower than those of 5.15%, 5.62% and 5.69% in October, which has a more positive role in reducing the cost of housing loans.

According to the loan model of "1 million loan principal, 30 years namely 360 periods, equal principal and interest repayment", the calculation results are shown in the table below. In November, the monthly contribution of the first suite in 64 cities was 5731 yuan, a decrease of 31 yuan compared with 5762 yuan in October, that is, the monthly contribution of each month will be reduced by 31 yuan. Among them, 4 first tier cities were 5433 yuan, 22 second tier cities were 5722 yuan, and 38 third and fourth tier cities were 5767 yuan, a decrease of 31 yuan compared with October. This further reflects the negative effect of LPR interest rate adjustment.

According to the formula of "mortgage interest rate = LPR + base point", the interest rate of the second set of housing in 64 cities was 5.92% in November, which was lower than that of 5.97% in October. From the perspective of city classification, the interest rates of the first tier, second tier, third tier and fourth tier cities are 5.56%, 5.89% and 5.98%, which are lower than those of 5.61%, 5.94% and 6.03% in October. This will also reduce the pressure on the purchase of second set of housing. According to the loan model of "1 million loan principal, 360 periods in 30 years, and equal principal and interest repayment", the monthly supply of second set of housing in 64 cities was 5947 yuan in November, which was 32 yuan less than that in October. Among them, 4 first tier cities were 5716 yuan, 22 second tier cities were 5926 yuan, and 38 third and fourth tier cities were 5983 yuan, which was 32 yuan less than that in October. If we exclude factors such as rounding off the data, the effect of reducing the burden is the same as that of the first apartment.

Analysis and Forecast: the market has bottom effect

Industry analysts believe that the adjustment of LPR is generally in line with expectations, further reflecting the current medium and long-term loan interest rate reduction and cost reduction guidance. This kind of adjustment of the basic interest rate also makes the mortgage interest rate itself decline, making the final calculation of the mortgage interest rate drop, which has a more positive role in reducing the pressure of monthly supply.

Yan Yuejin, director of E-House Research Institute, said that the interest rate adjustment has little impact on the previously signed house purchase loans, mainly affects the subsequent newly signed housing loan contracts, and will have a more positive impact on the pressure of house purchase in late November and in the future, that is to say, the pressure of monthly payment will be reduced, which will objectively reduce the pressure of house buyers, This is for the follow-up market

(editor in charge: Sun Hongli, Bi Lei)