The central economic work conference is about to be held, and the resolution of real estate inventory is one of the "four annihilation wars". This is not to continue to boost the property market, but to help get rid of land finance.

The first ten days of this month will be over, and the time for the central economic work conference is getting closer and closer. The tactical deployment of the "four annihilation wars" has attracted market attention.

"First Financial Daily" recently learned from multiple sources, general secretary Xi Jinping at the meeting of the central financial and economic leadership group proposed to resolve excess capacity, carry out the action to reduce the cost of real economy enterprises, resolve real estate inventory and prevent financial risks and other "four annihilation wars", will become an important part of the central economic work conference. In terms of resolving the inventory of real estate, a number of policies are expected to be launched.

A researcher close to the top told the first financial daily that since the positioning is "de Stocking", the purpose of government regulation is not to continue to boost real estate. In addition, it is expected that local governments will gradually get rid of the dependence on land finance and real estate. He also said: "let the real estate market revitalize, the flow of sales is the most important, as for how many sets of inventory to solve, there is no such statement."

There is no quantitative target for de stocking

According to the latest statistics of the Bureau of statistics, the number of vacant housing in China reached a record high in the first 10 months, while real estate investment hit a new low. The researchers close to the top told the first financial daily that China's economy is still in the process of going down. Whether it can reach the bottom and transform in one or two years, real estate can be said to be the most important boot in this process.

According to the real estate data from January to October released by the Statistics Bureau in November, as of the end of October, the area of commercial housing for sale in China was 686.32 million square meters, an increase of 21.22 million square meters compared with the end of September. Among them, the area of residential buildings for sale increased by 11.8 million square meters, setting a new record.

The continuous high inventory has a huge negative impact on the real estate investment data. According to the Statistics Bureau data, from January to October, the national real estate development investment reached 7880.1 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 2.0% year-on-year. The growth rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points compared with January to September, a record low.

Although the Statistics Bureau has provided clear data, many industry insiders and institutional analysts interviewed by our reporter believe that there are many disputes about the actual inventory and distribution of China's real estate.

For example, previous media reports said that the existing vacant housing can solve the housing problem of nearly 200 million people. But according to the Statistics Bureau, according to China's per capita housing area of 35 square meters, 686.32 million square meters of "vacant" housing can only accommodate 20 million people.

For another example, the China family finance research and research center of Southwest University of Finance and economics once issued a report in 2014 that the overall housing vacancy rate in urban areas in China was 22.4% in 2013, with a specific amount of 48.98 million units. According to the analysis of the report, China's urban areas can realize the increase limit of rigid housing demand is about 23 million units, and the increase limit of improved housing demand is about 9.5 million units, a total of 32.5 million units. However, the total supply of 48.98 million vacant housing units and 3.5 million commercial housing units for sale reached 52.48 million units. The conclusion is that the existing vacant housing can accommodate the people without housing.

For these disputes, the above-mentioned researchers close to the top told our reporter that the central government has not made rigid arrangements for specific local and specific inventory data, and the future policy layout is also overall. More importantly, we should use the power of the market to guide the allocation of resources and the flow of supply and demand.

On the other hand, for a long time in the past, local governments had a great dependence on land finance and real estate. At present, the sharp decline in the growth rate of real estate development investment has greatly affected GDP and local finance. Local governments are expected to get rid of these problems in the process of destocking, the researchers said.

Open up affordable housing and commercial housing

Many analysts believe that the biggest pain point of China's real estate is high inventory. The industry is expected to introduce more policies to stimulate the property market in the future.

Since last year, the government has introduced a series of stimulus policies, including interest rate reduction, adjustment of provident fund policy, reduction of down payment ratio of commercial loans, and deregulation of foreign investment into the property market. Some analysts told this newspaper that although there will not be a major shift in the regulatory policy, it is a high probability event that the policy will be relaxed next year.

It is worth noting that the transformation of affordable housing and shantytowns, which are both important strategic policies of the state, is expected to be deeply connected with the de stocking of the real estate market. In this year's government work report, Premier Li Keqiang explicitly proposed that "some existing housing should be converted into public rental housing and resettlement housing".

The above-mentioned researchers close to the top told reporters that it is an innovative control idea of "killing birds with one stone" to open a track between affordable housing and commercial housing. On the one hand, the real estate needs to be de stocked, and the goal of 7.4 million affordable housing in 2015 is a highlight of the government's livelihood project, and the two will match immediately; on the other hand, next year is the opening year of the 13th five year plan. To achieve the transformation and upgrading of real estate and solve the housing demand of the old hundred families is the requirement of a well-off society in an all-round way.

At present, this policy has gradually entered the substantive release stage. Among them, monetary compensation and resettlement for shantytowns transformation, which is regarded as a means of providing credit liquidity to the real estate market, has been in place.

According to the central plan, the State Development Bank has released a total of 400 billion yuan of credit line to shantytowns reconstruction and monetization compensation and resettlement within this year, and the task of targeted credit extension of this line has been basically completed. In terms of the amount of funds, plus the amount of financial support and the amount of credit asset securitization pilot project, the total fund will reach one trillion yuan.

According to the above-mentioned researchers, the most effective and no sequelae way is to solve the supply and demand problem in a market-oriented way, "this way can also guide the real estate inventory to the people in need, and can more effectively improve the housing utilization rate."

Supporting policies were promoted at the same time

In the "war of annihilation" of destocking, in addition to the monetization of affordable housing, a package of supporting policies in the fields of finance, taxation and household registration is expected to appear intensively next year.

Previously, the central government has proposed efforts to realize the settlement of about 100 million agricultural transfer population and other permanent residents in cities and towns, which is considered as the direction of policy regulation and control, which will produce long-term benefits for the de inventory of real estate. At present, the reform of household registration system, the adjustment of family planning policy, the development of rural contracted land management rights and farmers' housing property rights according to law and the pilot of mortgage loans have been implemented.

In addition, it is reported that relevant ministries and commissions have policy reserves in the management of provident fund amount, real estate transaction tax and other aspects. In order to ensure the policy effect, credit policies such as down payment ratio and interest rate may also be introduced at the same time.

Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, believes that real estate credit and interest rate policies are expected to be further loosened, especially the role of housing accumulation fund is expected to be strengthened, and the "National Housing Bank" may put forward a timetable.